MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6d964789fbe2a94c9967283efc6f354af97e86ce6a6f27d9865fa74afb08cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof San Diego Padres, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 13,207$8,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,355.01 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 12,075$3,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,984.83 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 550$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.71 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed San Diego Padres | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked San Diego Padres | 24c | 307.3$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 227.95$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed San Diego Padres | 24c | 227$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 21c | 217.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 17c | 200.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 185.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 74c | 163.23$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 104.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Diego Padres | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed San Diego Padres | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Miami Marlins | 79c | 96.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked San Diego Padres | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Miami Marlins | 77c | 50.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 23c | 50.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 32c | 36.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…6e88backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 33.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 29.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…4d1abacked Miami Marlins | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 15.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.