TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,801 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over55c139,799$76,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,836.6146949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under45c52,637$23,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,950.610157.4%58 W · 43 L+8.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under45c39,542$17,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,747.9732152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over42c15,421$6,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,527.1411,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under45c14,451$6,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,910.423,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under58c11,940$6,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,015.1810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e64…336dbacked Under45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,499.9944945.4%204 W · 245 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under46c9,061$4,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,933.034,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Over55c7,500$4,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,124.9948952.8%258 W · 231 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under45c5,474$2,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,010.616,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Under45c3,556$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.5664452.2%336 W · 308 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under45c3,398$1,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.081,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Under45c2,668$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,467.373949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over54c2,536$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.441,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under45c2,385$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.256,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under45c2,048$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.42,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Under45c1,591$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87556253.2%299 W · 263 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under64c1,495$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.2412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Under45c1,136$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.9987750.4%442 W · 435 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Under45c1,077$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.131,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under66c1,051$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.344,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.461,79643.8%786 W · 1,010 L-33.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under45c990$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.732,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under45c864.73$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.238,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under45c850$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.516753.9%90 W · 77 L+10.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over46c663.39$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.28,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Under66c655.74$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9538353.5%205 W · 178 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Under46c600.01$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.0123758.6%139 W · 98 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Under45c600$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33032850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over48c546.52$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.552,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under45c500$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c500$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.55,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Under47c372.35$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.168,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under45c348.82$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.8541346.7%193 W · 220 L-10.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under66c337.62$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.661,00058.8%588 W · 412 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c6…7b39backed Over57c304.64$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.6423240.9%95 W · 137 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad99…dbabbacked Over55c303.01$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.6513048.5%63 W · 67 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Under45c293$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1522448.7%109 W · 115 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over55c272.73$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0844…f46abacked Under44c272.48$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.5916848.2%81 W · 87 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff19…3ebebacked Under45c269.12$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.0240447.8%193 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under62c206.37$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.485,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over32c195.45$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.5531844%140 W · 178 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under45c182$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.147350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under59c176.41$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over40c147.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.885,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Under46c140$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.31,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Over56c139.79$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9920945%94 W · 115 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over31c132.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.571,87940.6%763 W · 1,116 L-39.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under45c125$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.751,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over48c121.18$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.143,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Under45c119.42$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6848851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over38c107.18$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.762,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over53c105.88$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1275248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under58c105$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.14,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,27951.2%655 W · 624 L-19.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over31c99.9$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.974,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4318…9a94backed Under54c98.21$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.349443.6%41 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over56c97.71$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7255758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under66c97.68$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.211,20558.8%708 W · 497 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over39c91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.494,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Under59c90.66$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.352,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Under46c90.47$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9712037.5%45 W · 75 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c80…e19bbacked Under45c88.88$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8822450%112 W · 112 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecdb…c4c7backed Over55c88.88$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8829141.6%121 W · 170 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.677050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5016…ada1backed Under46c83$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8235650.6%180 W · 176 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Under65c81.01$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4273355.3%405 W · 328 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Under45c79.07$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4946152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Under45c72$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.695252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Under46c71.66$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3653655.8%299 W · 237 L+22.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe0a…b267backed Under45c62.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9212154.5%66 W · 55 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under65c59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.781,81449.1%891 W · 923 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Under70c58.91$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.942451.9%220 W · 204 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7aa…abe3backed Under45c55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2535149.3%173 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38ef…8800backed Under44c48.42$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1242448.1%204 W · 220 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68e1…b2fabacked Over55c47.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2214752.4%77 W · 70 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e4b…0a04backed Under45c46.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7517550.3%88 W · 87 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8efa…894cbacked Over54c46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8445445.2%205 W · 249 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff2a…bfefbacked Over45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2031343.5%136 W · 177 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Under45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4446255.8%258 W · 204 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over54c42.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1358352.1%304 W · 279 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under47c42.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.282,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4732…f40dbacked Under70c41.39$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5816539.4%65 W · 100 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c1e…befebacked Under45c40.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2428553%151 W · 134 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747f…f2d7backed Under45c39.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.9117047.1%80 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bed…c30bbacked Under62c39.29$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.948153.1%43 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cc…d589backed Over43c37.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.111,24556.9%708 W · 537 L+31.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Under45c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.827252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a62…5247backed Under45c36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.814047.9%67 W · 73 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x237f…e76ebacked Under45c35.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3117255.8%96 W · 76 L+8.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under67c34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.12,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea7…078bbacked Under45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331850%9 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927c…a79abacked Over52c32.31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.88744.8%39 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d3…5639backed Under45c30.98$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0420654.4%112 W · 94 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e1…b7d4backed Over48c30.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992040%8 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb4…4551backed Under45c28.71$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7921152.6%111 W · 100 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Under45c27.53$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.141,03851.7%537 W · 501 L+1.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed Over47c25.34$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9113345.9%61 W · 72 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f9…6c15backed Under51c24.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.922040%8 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.