MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09432fa5d111fa25a689e0c7be06b5ff5b4a71367a5e0ada9eeedf265f9e3ac5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 45c | 67,606$30,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,276.36 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 15,448$8,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,875.53 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Under | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.99 | 449 | 45.4%204 W · 245 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 55c | 9,639$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,339.15 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 55c | 6,871$3,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 44c | 5,722$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 4,323$2,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,943.19 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 55c | 3,345$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.38 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 55c | 2,896$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.11 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…4b55backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 61c | 1,148$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.59 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 55c | 1,062$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 56c | 1,024$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.56 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 55c | 955$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.75 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.86 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 55c | 885.22$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.35 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 55c | 827.71$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.47 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 56c | 799.06$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 71c | 590.39$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 43c | 519.61$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.43 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 500$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…4fadbacked Under | 57c | 400$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 56c | 351.42$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.62 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…c2d6backed Under | 58c | 344.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 55c | 343.55$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 295.68$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 55c | 295.63$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Under | 56c | 293$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.92 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 219.83$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 55c | 216$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 56c | 211$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.84 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 44c | 205.66$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.49 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 77c | 157$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 56c | 140$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 46c | 130.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Under | 55c | 126.3$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 55c | 125$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 55c | 100.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 55c | 92.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 57c | 86.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 44c | 85.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Over | 45c | 82.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 42c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Over | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 56c | 74.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 55c | 74.41$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 74.4$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 55c | 72.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 60c | 71.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 55c | 68.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Under | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Under | 55c | 62.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 55c | 60.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 55c | 54.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Over | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 45c | 50.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 77c | 46.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Under | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 67c | 40.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 55c | 36.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 56c | 35.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 44c | 34.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 55c | 34.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 49c | 27.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…7115backed Under | 57c | 25.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 51c | 23.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.