MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5ca1bae0c7d399ea9a5f5092be3429ac3b4630fab845ff546c7a483f277f28e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Miami Marlins, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,720
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 9,638$3,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,421.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 2,095$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,943$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.45 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Miami Marlins | 36c | 1,408$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.27 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Diego Padres | 67c | 1,065$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.44 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 999.99$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.49 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked San Diego Padres | 73c | 951.49$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.64 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 15c | 878.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 431$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 260.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 230.04$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.22 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 177.94$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.84 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 176.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.78 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 161.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 159.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 158.73$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 122$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 107$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 84.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 81.91$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 52.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 51.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9096…17dcbacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 50.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 28.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 21.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.