NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a6fcc7c9205f8db945ff0fcaae40de00171585c9dafcb93e46b3ea4701d7d83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 48c | 89,849$43,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,127.64 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked Under | 52c | 75,000$39,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,000 | 518 | 44.4%230 W · 288 L | +11.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 53c | 40,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,799.96 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Over | 47c | 10,071$4,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,733.39 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 8,280$3,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,891.28 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa5…4f56backed Over | 47c | 3,332$1,566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 2,948$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.96 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 52c | 1,455$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.97 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over | 47c | 868.09$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 182 | 41.2%75 W · 107 L | -17.6wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 47c | 753.4$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.1 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 47c | 523$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 53c | 62.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 47c | 34.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 53c | 33.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 47c | 28.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Under | 54c | 27.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Kings won
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Kings won
- Kings vs. KnicksKnicks won
- Kings vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
- Kings vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Miles McBride: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Knicks won
- Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.