NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c9c9ebb83ab2266eb4036eb67e803ef364eacd22fe50179ae3e6d9bdbafebdc

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 28, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,938

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,869 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x84db…aeebbacked Under	51c	9,234$4,709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,524.51	1,374	50.1%689 W · 685 L	+34.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	8,771$4,287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,286.6	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ea6…3cabbacked Over	48c	4,925$2,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,364	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcd4e…961ebacked Over	48c	4,644$2,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,229.12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5342…a870backed Under	52c	3,945$2,051 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,893.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.29per pick	49cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1611…3b81backed Over	48c	3,887$1,866 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,866.01	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aed…cc7fbacked Under	52c	3,611$1,878 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,733.28	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53ac…e5e2backed Under	52c	3,589$1,866 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,722.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf794…3379backed Under	52c	3,364$1,749 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,614.72	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad92…0927backed Under	52c	3,204$1,666 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,537.92	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c50…a2a9backed Under	52c	2,585$1,344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240.8	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42e9…80a8backed Over	48c	2,229$1,070 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,070.13	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+15%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f2e…2ad2backed Under	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	28	60.7%17 W · 11 L	+3.1wins	+0.11per pick	50cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a0…42a3backed Under	52c	2,100$1,092 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+4.4wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+35.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xafd1…da41backed Over	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.4wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc898…e5b3backed Over	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.5wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72e1…cbc2backed Over	48c	1,480$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710.4	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	50cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a8…2aa9backed Over	48c	1,345$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.6	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	49cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Under	62c	1,312$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$496.71	245	49%120 W · 125 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa3…6d59backed Over	48c	1,224$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.52	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-2.4wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeab9…c0d6backed Under	52c	1,211$630 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.28	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x130f…bae0backed Over	48c	1,120$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.6	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	48cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xff70…ff48backed Over	48c	1,089$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	39c	1,006$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.23	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x91e2…1362backed Over	48c	891$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.68	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over	49c	850.73$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.86	238	50%119 W · 119 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0703…1d1ebacked Under	52c	611$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.28	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.26per pick	51cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b45…d196backed Under	67c	566.05$380 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$186.07	125	40.8%51 W · 74 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over	47c	498$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.06	401	46.9%188 W · 213 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda2…4db2backed Under	52c	422$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$202.56	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+2.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+99.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	47c	418.03$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.27	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Over	34c	406.79$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.62	191	35.6%68 W · 123 L	-9.3wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Over	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1,390	26%361 W · 1,029 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2de8…1121backed Under	67c	350$236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114	909	57.6%524 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8405…bd70backed Under	52c	350$182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	50cpaid	+33.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd947…9b61backed Under	50c	340$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over	33c	300.35$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.27	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a39…2cf9backed Under	52c	288$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$138.24	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over	31c	275.33$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.35	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203d…e00fbacked Over	38c	243$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.24	45	33.3%15 W · 30 L	-4.4wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-29%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Over	38c	212.46$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.45	689	40.2%277 W · 412 L	-54.9wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Under	52c	202.51$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.2	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Over	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	656	49.2%323 W · 333 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under	51c	200$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98	249	46.6%116 W · 133 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	53c	189.23$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.23	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Over	48c	187.25$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.88	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Over	38c	150.71$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.75	127	37%47 W · 80 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb405…c706backed Over	37c	147$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.39	149	49.7%74 W · 75 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c5…0b58backed Under	52c	133.48$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.48	7	85.7%6 W · 1 L	+2.1wins	+0.30per pick	56cpaid	+53.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	48c	115$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Under	52c	115$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.2	543	51.6%280 W · 263 L	-3.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Over	36c	108$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.88	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8985…2e25backed Over	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	76	43.4%33 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	61c	98.35$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.36	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x743a…ddcdbacked Over	48c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	60	43.3%26 W · 34 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1436…e23dbacked Over	32c	72$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	80	50%40 W · 40 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb53c…c76ebacked Over	49c	71.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	487	40.7%198 W · 289 L	-13.0wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Over	37c	71$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.27	61	54.1%33 W · 28 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	48c	68.13$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Over	37c	66$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.42	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over	35c	59.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	1,786	53.2%950 W · 836 L	+52.7wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	64c	57.97$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.9	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0435…cf1dbacked Under	53c	53.14$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.14	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Under	64c	51.33$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.33	1,444	58.1%839 W · 605 L	+13.5wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7f…7aecbacked Over	39c	51.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	436	47.9%209 W · 227 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…f244backed Under	62c	51$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.38	41	53.7%22 W · 19 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe62e…d3e2backed Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.02	106	44.3%47 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f6…9cdabacked Under	63c	46$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.86	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+4.5wins	+0.13per pick	53cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under	62c	42.31$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.21	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under	64c	39.06$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.06	373	52%194 W · 179 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x450a…a7debacked Under	65c	38.63$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.63	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	63cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e6…5a30backed Under	65c	30.77$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	33	66.7%22 W · 11 L	+1.3wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bec…6997backed Under	66c	30$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.2	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x38dc…4c5fbacked Under	64c	29$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.44	22	50%11 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb665…95a8backed Over	38c	28$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe91…4462backed Under	65c	27$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.49	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Over	48c	26.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-15.0wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e1a…60e5backed Under	63c	26$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Under	68c	26$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.32	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f1c…0dd0backed Over	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+4.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f96…92e0backed Under	63c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf3e…390fbacked Under	63c	24$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x608b…6e88backed Under	68c	23$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.36	39	56.4%22 W · 17 L	+1.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ec…4f9cbacked Under	64c	21$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.56	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under	68c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.4	379	59.4%225 W · 154 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce96…ff5cbacked Under	64c	17$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.12	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe8…47f8backed Under	63c	16$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.92	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-6.9wins	-0.24per pick	51cpaid	-48.3%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5this page
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5)Kings won
1H Spread: Knicks (-8.5)Kings won
Kings vs. KnicksKnicks won
Kings vs. Knicks: 1H MoneylineKnicks won
Kings vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 225.5Under won
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 226.5Under won
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5Under won
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 229.5Under won
Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 230.5Under won
Miles McBride: Points O/U 10.5No won
Mitchell Robinson: Rebounds O/U 9.5Yes won
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)Knicks won
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)Knicks won
Zach LaVine: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kings vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event