Serie A · resolved market
US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a759ebefec1b1e50db4ec1af2abec2cccf7ea45dbfd8b24f33dd8ebe5a8d9fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 75c | 1,783$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.15 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 24c | 1,388$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 25c | 1,385$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.46 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 25c | 1,308$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.02 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…47a4backed Over | 49c | 790.78$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Over | 11c | 757.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +8.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd307…f4d1backed Under | 59c | 381.89$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Under | 75c | 378.34$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 26c | 374.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 387 | 39.8%154 W · 233 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 27c | 354.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Under | 42c | 331.13$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.06 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Under | 72c | 306.76$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.89 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ca…2ab7backed Over | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc418…5e1ebacked Under | 49c | 153.98$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 28c | 153.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 23c | 145.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 22c | 144.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 51c | 114.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…1707backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 64c | 97.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 64c | 87.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2413…2442backed Under | 76c | 68.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 78c | 63.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Over | 27c | 50.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4d…0486backed Over | 38c | 50.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7798…9ef0backed Under | 72c | 50.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1a…7e9bbacked Under | 73c | 49.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…262ebacked Over | 29c | 49.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 27c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed Under | 49c | 39.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 65c | 38.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 72c | 35.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…0905backed Over | 52c | 31.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 58c | 25.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…a6ddbacked Over | 65c | 21.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)Atalanta BC won
- Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)Atalanta BC won
- US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5Over won
- US Lecce vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.