TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$212,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $212,870 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons69c39,607$27,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,081.555157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Virtus.pro24c38,100$9,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,076.8254556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons78c10,253$7,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,281.5486949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba4a…9fa6backed Virtus.pro30c9,890$2,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,962.963857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Virtus.pro30c9,333$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,799.8945139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Virtus.pro9c8,456$783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.9617444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Team Falcons73c7,980$5,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.9811547%54 W · 61 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Virtus.pro23c6,892$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.896557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Team Falcons69c6,085$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,886.3214253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Virtus.pro12c4,374$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.0350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Virtus.pro26c3,876$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00053451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons79c3,224$2,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.271,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Virtus.pro27c3,188$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.768749.4%43 W · 44 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Virtus.pro29c2,291$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.2928748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons79c2,227$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.891,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Virtus.pro30c2,098$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.1638653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Virtus.pro24c2,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47017133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Virtus.pro29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.979749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons78c1,684$1,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.221,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Virtus.pro28c1,546$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.8841242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Virtus.pro31c1,500$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Team Falcons73c1,499$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.2814744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Virtus.pro31c1,459$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.444440.9%18 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Virtus.pro27c1,435$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.3512560%75 W · 50 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Virtus.pro25c1,400$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34418362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83b6…ed97backed Virtus.pro27c1,107$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30150%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Team Falcons69c1,101$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.398540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Virtus.pro1c1,050$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Virtus.pro30c1,012$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.614452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Virtus.pro25c1,008$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.071,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons72c999.97$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.9960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Virtus.pro8c981$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.7525547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Virtus.pro31c978.65$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Falcons71c934.82$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.114854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro28c899.75$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.9360646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Virtus.pro13c890.33$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.820156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons74c867.31$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.461,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Team Falcons71c853.4$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.198251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro24c845.84$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.122,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Team Falcons71c776.8$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.36753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Virtus.pro28c748.25$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5149455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5132…020dbacked Virtus.pro29c717.24$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2061520%3 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-58.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Team Falcons72c706.25$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Falcons71c672.75$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.5716550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Virtus.pro9c619.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9527737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Team Falcons72c608.55$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.328257.3%47 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Virtus.pro18c596$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.860552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Virtus.pro11c592.59$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbf…4605backed Team Falcons72c580$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.121346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Team Falcons70c576.38$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9611549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Virtus.pro30c531.3$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9414832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons76c510.88$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro8c504.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.546132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Virtus.pro21c500$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4739660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8de4…67a8backed Team Falcons71c461.53$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.323751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Team Falcons71c435.59$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1411450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be4…1f20backed Virtus.pro24c412.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3091…748dbacked Virtus.pro17c410$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.0818923.8%45 W · 144 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d00…95b2backed Virtus.pro28c406.36$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Falcons74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4136654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Falcons80c400$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8036759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Team Falcons71c399.37$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.7310550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Team Falcons77c391.69$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7819162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Team Falcons71c390.49$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.3313247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6ff6…702dbacked Virtus.pro9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302711.1%3 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ea8…077dbacked Team Falcons72c320.76$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.965349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Virtus.pro12c300$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8542145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae10…d0d9backed Virtus.pro18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5417353.2%92 W · 81 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Virtus.pro24c290.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Falcons73c286.95$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.1451550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3492…983fbacked Virtus.pro12c282$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.847159.2%42 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Virtus.pro18c278.21$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.912955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Team Falcons70c264.3$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.056650%33 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf75b…b40dbacked Team Falcons73c226.33$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.332373.9%17 W · 6 L+4.5wins+0.20per pick54cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro19c223.16$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.151,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b63…4acdbacked Team Falcons69c221.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8116248.8%79 W · 83 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Virtus.pro18c217.65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5324137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x006a…14edbacked Team Falcons73c205.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4811960.5%72 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ac…c7b0backed Team Falcons70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Virtus.pro28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5645457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Virtus.pro32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6433549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354a…ae3ebacked Virtus.pro29c190.9$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.36850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Virtus.pro27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Virtus.pro27c180$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.625150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf151…24c7backed Team Falcons70c172.87$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4716849.4%83 W · 85 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6680…0535backed Team Falcons71c169.75$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.866149.2%30 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f40…5401backed Virtus.pro30c165.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.995151%26 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd077…46c0backed Virtus.pro31c162.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Team Falcons71c152.11$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.829650%48 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Falcons73c152.05$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0561745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1019…d7cabacked Team Falcons71c143.18$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.986650%33 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Virtus.pro18c142.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8472637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x464c…4632backed Virtus.pro29c142.29$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4150%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7310…2b8fbacked Team Falcons71c139.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.872259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b05…7b7dbacked Team Falcons71c139.58$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0510352.4%54 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e6…24e6backed Team Falcons71c129.1$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8510649.1%52 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons79c127.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.1520367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4b4…17b1backed Virtus.pro20c124.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6113331.6%42 W · 91 L-10.9wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c50…7f4bbacked Team Falcons71c124.36$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.685052%26 W · 24 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.