TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$137,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,673 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro5c13,297$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.072,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons72c13,249$9,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.7855157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62f2…07f8backed Virtus.pro29c10,996$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,20214253.5%76 W · 66 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Virtus.pro30c7,391$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211.0213020%26 W · 104 L-6.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-33.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Falcons73c6,837$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Virtus.pro17c4,700$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79941242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Virtus.pro28c4,352$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.1113441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Virtus.pro28c3,096$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.7851751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Team Falcons72c2,672$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.8914854.7%81 W · 67 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59c8…de83backed Virtus.pro24c2,526$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6029447.9%45 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Virtus.pro10c2,496$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.4713045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82da…da33backed Virtus.pro4c2,444$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010743%46 W · 61 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro28c1,995$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Virtus.pro18c1,712$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.7718746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro15c1,493$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.8660646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Virtus.pro27c1,464$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.0460542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro27c1,459$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3981,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro4c1,335$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.176132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Virtus.pro28c1,200$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33649455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons72c1,196$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.181,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons76c1,052$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.481,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons71c1,000$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.231,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Team Falcons80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2009749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Virtus.pro25c999.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9923650.4%119 W · 117 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Virtus.pro18c999.72$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Virtus.pro26c936.7$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.541,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons71c861.72$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.5532854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Virtus.pro21c854.68$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.178540%34 W · 51 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro14c818.03$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.461,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Virtus.pro29c800.51$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6644149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Team Falcons80c777.57$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.5130155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d00…95b2backed Virtus.pro25c773.39$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x563d…0f60backed Virtus.pro21c768.14$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4880…7a20backed Virtus.pro24c751.69$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.93333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-23.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Virtus.pro21c736$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.5639660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Virtus.pro28c727.29$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9612638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons74c620.27$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.5845046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Falcons71c587.6$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.381,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x02cd…cedcbacked Virtus.pro3c561.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Team Falcons70c539.28$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1273841.7%308 W · 430 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons75c450.48$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.214744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Virtus.pro23c434.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7627…4404backed Virtus.pro12c412$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014832.4%48 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Team Falcons73c411.84$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.216550.9%84 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xceed…ea2ebacked Team Falcons75c399.94$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.94560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56fc…affbbacked Virtus.pro19c390$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3225547.8%122 W · 133 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x881b…9893backed Team Falcons72c380.56$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.562100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed Team Falcons73c377.03$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.88251.2%42 W · 40 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b6…ad8ebacked Team Falcons76c355.99$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4432652.1%170 W · 156 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac51…a1fbbacked Team Falcons71c352.11$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.113429.4%10 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-40.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3804…6d61backed Team Falcons74c351.35$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.355554.5%30 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Virtus.pro17c346.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons78c343.8$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.0446649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Falcons73c343.02$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0236654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Team Falcons73c334.14$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.588257.3%47 W · 35 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2b6…d7cebacked Team Falcons73c331.11$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.46753.7%36 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed Virtus.pro28c326.74$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9525150.2%126 W · 125 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Virtus.pro27c325.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9117133.9%58 W · 113 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a9…263cbacked Virtus.pro8c310$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5724137.3%90 W · 151 L+9.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f5c…9e02backed Team Falcons73c305.88$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5911549.6%57 W · 58 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Virtus.pro28c283.85$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4856548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffb…f7f0backed Team Falcons73c274.82$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.9151550.9%262 W · 253 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Team Falcons73c273.56$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.566250%31 W · 31 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x675c…5af6backed Virtus.pro25c272.66$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.03933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Virtus.pro29c255.55$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1126453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Virtus.pro29c215.85$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7744645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Virtus.pro22c215.16$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Virtus.pro30c208.81$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4418739%73 W · 114 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Virtus.pro23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4645457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Falcons70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6023050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf98b…57bbbacked Team Falcons75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4541864.1%268 W · 150 L+17.2wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons71c199.99$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5848352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de4…67a8backed Team Falcons73c199.07$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.753751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Team Falcons73c189.99$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.311450%57 W · 57 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x675f…aa0bbacked Virtus.pro27c185.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ea8…077dbacked Team Falcons73c181.04$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.885349.1%26 W · 27 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76fc…48fabacked Team Falcons73c179.15$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3713247.7%63 W · 69 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-15%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x917b…e433backed Team Falcons73c177.53$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.9310550.5%53 W · 52 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Virtus.pro27c173.97$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9756542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Falcons72c173.46$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5761057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd077…46c0backed Team Falcons80c172.91$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.912050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b0b…94d1backed Virtus.pro28c172.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.331258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro21c172.29$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.191,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Virtus.pro12c169$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.578516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Team Falcons73c164$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.287565.3%49 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa77…bf95backed Virtus.pro15c163.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2525953.3%138 W · 121 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Falcons72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4247951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f05…a9b9backed Virtus.pro28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9920367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Virtus.pro13c129.8$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1749644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a3…f319backed Virtus.pro17c120.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.322128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd7cf…a603backed Team Falcons70c120.6$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.186349.2%31 W · 32 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-23.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Virtus.pro27c109.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Team Falcons73c101.75$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.589650%48 W · 48 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Virtus.pro22c100.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.781,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Team Falcons80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205048%24 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Virtus.pro13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Virtus.pro24c99.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2463032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked Team Falcons73c97.44$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.316650%33 W · 33 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f9e…10c8backed Team Falcons72c93$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.047149.3%35 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.