World Politics · resolved market
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a8999b02c33ea0ff070fdd32bf01ae0b2848b85347d8363f0d2115c9338f908
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf738…cbdfbacked No | 1c | 1,268$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x317a…ac42backed Yes | 15c | 1,002$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 18cpaid | +483.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 65c | 799.48$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.47 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed No | 42c | 469.77$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.03 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…e3e6backed Yes | 12c | 366$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +611.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ee…801bbacked Yes | 65c | 347$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 34c | 214.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked Yes | 64c | 204.36$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 178.66$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…dd4bbacked No | 65c | 150$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…c1bbbacked Yes | 63c | 142.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bd…9dd5backed No | 55c | 91.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7e…f37ebacked Yes | 70c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…1f9dbacked No | 24c | 65.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 47c | 58.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…e386backed Yes | 64c | 49.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed Yes | 56c | 44.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…a123backed No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d0…6d36backed Yes | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 50c | 36.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 54c | 28.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 45c | 26.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 43c | 25.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6938…b3ddbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?this page
- Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Yes won
- Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 900 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.