Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6aa104782acff0b00e82c93922373007669af0ceeef1cf8147fd8f1c9e6ebb5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 17c | 1,257$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.13 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 626$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.48 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 21c | 453.58$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.96 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 272.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 262.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 71c | 229.78$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.72 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 193.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 191.26$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 27c | 177.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.64 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 16c | 176.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.52 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 172.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 31c | 162.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 157.81$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 27c | 149.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25e…2dd7backed Yes | 27c | 110.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 99.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 88.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 22c | 88.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 52c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 72.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 57.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 64c | 51.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 58c | 34.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 47c | 31.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 42c | 24.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 60c | 21.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 80c | 20.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 15.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 76°F or higher on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.