Lol · resolved market
LoL: Disguised vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ab5d2bd51d150150dde2868fe8f024ce512eb8a5347014dcb86fb279f17799b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud9of Disguised, Cloud9
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Disguised | 8c | 6,839$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.54 | 1,468 | 28.9%424 W · 1,044 L | +23.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Disguised | 9c | 6,177$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.95 | 345 | 36.5%126 W · 219 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Disguised | 8c | 2,977$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.92 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Disguised | 13c | 2,889$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.65 | 679 | 31.8%216 W · 463 L | -31.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Disguised | 17c | 2,238$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.47 | 443 | 35.4%157 W · 286 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…dadbbacked Disguised | 18c | 1,796$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.79 | 1,092 | 52.4%572 W · 520 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…ed1fbacked Disguised | 12c | 1,290$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 158 | 21.5%34 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b75…6bb0backed Disguised | 16c | 1,164$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.96 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a22…fca9backed Disguised | 7c | 1,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Disguised | 18c | 915.48$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.79 | 181 | 21%38 W · 143 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Disguised | 12c | 790.9$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.72 | 918 | 54%496 W · 422 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Disguised | 16c | 789.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.29 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a5…d074backed Disguised | 8c | 601.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Disguised | 17c | 545$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 993 | 38.6%383 W · 610 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Disguised | 13c | 511.17$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 330 | 42.4%140 W · 190 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Disguised | 15c | 508.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 208 | 26.9%56 W · 152 L | -13.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7809…64ccbacked Disguised | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 174 | 31%54 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x812a…73edbacked Disguised | 9c | 481.27$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 584 | 20.2%118 W · 466 L | -58.1wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -43%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Disguised | 17c | 433.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Disguised | 13c | 418.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 369 | 46.1%170 W · 199 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Disguised | 16c | 392.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 962 | 50.1%482 W · 480 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Disguised | 18c | 391.67$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Disguised | 12c | 384.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Disguised | 10c | 352.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…a754backed Disguised | 17c | 285.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Disguised | 5c | 252.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Disguised | 7c | 252.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 780 | 43.1%336 W · 444 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ca…b702backed Disguised | 5c | 233.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Disguised | 9c | 230$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,156 | 45.1%521 W · 635 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Disguised | 9c | 177.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 820 | 44%361 W · 459 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Disguised | 11c | 158.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 2,905 | 38.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L | -118.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Disguised | 13c | 143$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Disguised | 16c | 125.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Disguised | 16c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 390 | 44.6%174 W · 216 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Disguised | 17c | 100.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 177 | 39%69 W · 108 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…e3e2backed Disguised | 17c | 97.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5db7…a264backed Disguised | 17c | 83.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Disguised | 13c | 79.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 1,058 | 23.5%249 W · 809 L | -75.8wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Disguised | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,643 | 44.4%730 W · 913 L | -42.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Disguised | 16c | 66.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Disguised vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Seasonthis page
- First Blood in Game 1?Disguised won
- First Blood in Game 2?Cloud9 won
- Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)Cloud9 won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Disguised vs Cloud9 - Game 1 WinnerCloud9 won
- LoL: Disguised vs Cloud9 - Game 2 WinnerCloud9 won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 2?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.