Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ac665f09a1c998e766dd750ba8680a00d4c04b43d6595d200593d17df8b20e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 1,889$1,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.18 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 26c | 493.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.42 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ed…8a18backed Yes | 26c | 431.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.26 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 376.44$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.73 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 349.58$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 26c | 318.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.38 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 22c | 290.03$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.72 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 257.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 22c | 227.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 24c | 214.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 20c | 180.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 157.28$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 138.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 28c | 133$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 11c | 129.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked No | 75c | 129.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 127.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 126.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 123.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 23c | 122.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 121.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 120.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 114.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 112.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 32c | 104.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 90.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 29c | 81.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 26c | 80.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 31c | 79.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 74c | 75.91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 71c | 67.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 26c | 62.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 57.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…fe15backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…41bcbacked Yes | 29c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 73c | 51.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked No | 73c | 50.67$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa8…5b69backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7b…ffc1backed No | 73c | 49.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 27c | 42.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 41.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 38.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 30.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 73c | 25.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0792…229fbacked No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 68c | 18.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 10?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.