Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac494122ec1bd0f579e259978fcff573406820f05f46dc5375d067761dc260fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 53c | 2,626$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.44 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 757.42$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 46c | 750$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 59c | 521.25$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.37 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 379.42$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 356.2$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 28c | 315.28$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 304.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 302.39$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…5729backed No | 45c | 265.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 181$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 66c | 175.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.81 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 35c | 171$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 41c | 147.9$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 56c | 140.65$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 165 | 32.1%53 W · 112 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 130.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 124.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 122.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked Yes | 34c | 104.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.69 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 19c | 102.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 20c | 86.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 36c | 79.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 78.65$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 76.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 61c | 75.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 30c | 74.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…b929backed No | 68c | 73.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 71.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 73c | 68.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 23c | 63.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 64c | 54.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…ec8ebacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…4331backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…fe15backed No | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 37c | 46.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 44.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 34c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21a5…437ebacked Yes | 34c | 39.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 31c | 35.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 35.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 37c | 30.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22c…8aadbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…65c0backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x792e…b01cbacked Yes | 77c | 29.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 68c | 27.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 60c | 26.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152f…3cc3backed No | 64c | 21.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 62c | 20.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.