NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b0274746e0d7d8323b9784b26552f7047cb56a5231e00edda705b5bb5cba65f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,258
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 51c | 2,604$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.08 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 2,330$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…2974backed Under | 32c | 2,148$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.56 | 173 | 31.8%55 W · 118 L | -8.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 1,837$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.87 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 1,674$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.59 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…5341backed Under | 50c | 553$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…2851backed Under | 4c | 551.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 50c | 453$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.5 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb900…c4c7backed Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 53c | 292.3$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 197$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 44c | 110.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Under | 51c | 86.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 44c | 54.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked Under | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee47…a253backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…9dcebacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -9.4wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…debdbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Jazz won
- Pistons vs. JazzJazz won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 126.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Jazz won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.