NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf68bfb73caa62ef6927244e0038b625d855671395d0d7a2e9ec94575fe44a838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Pistons, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Jazz | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Pistons | 53c | 1,933$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.7 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Pistons | 54c | 1,342$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.48 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 46c | 955.87$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 49c | 626.9$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Jazz | 48c | 593$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.36 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Pistons | 54c | 560$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.4 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz | 46c | 457$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.78 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…244cbacked Pistons | 54c | 371.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.48 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -11.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Pistons | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb2…f12fbacked Pistons | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 230 | 58.7%135 W · 95 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca6f…e727backed Pistons | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Jazz | 58c | 170.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.98 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…f78ebacked Pistons | 44c | 128.16$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 133 | 39.1%52 W · 81 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Pistons | 45c | 114.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 126 | 44.4%56 W · 70 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…d0c8backed Pistons | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz | 46c | 28.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jazz | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 53c | 19.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…9bdebacked Jazz | 62c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 147 | 64.6%95 W · 52 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Jazz won
- Pistons vs. JazzJazz won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 124.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 126.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: O/U 244.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Jazz: O/U 245.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-9.5)Jazz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.