Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b53a75a4eaa253567861323456c07cd865013da710e7222f8879a1b03ca90e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 476.43$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 25c | 420$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 77c | 332.87$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 21c | 231.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 25c | 199.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 124$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 98.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 74.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 68.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 44c | 67.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 65.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 28c | 56.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 77c | 47.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 32c | 47.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 63c | 43.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…61b4backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 68c | 38.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 74c | 37.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 36.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 70c | 36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 35.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 73c | 34.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 79c | 32.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 68c | 31.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 77c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 26.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 25.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…693bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 61cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2f…b741backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 18.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 75c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.