Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ea22e7908b9edf6e9d4a9562cc4b72dbf7b43aa30b69babef31107f52cfe2ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 10c | 299.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 62c | 241.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 34c | 217.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 27c | 214.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.33 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 68c | 153.2$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 71c | 141.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dca…ebaabacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 67c | 133.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 29c | 127.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 121.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 71c | 121.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 16c | 117.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 107.6$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 98.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 29c | 97.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 63c | 95.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 87.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 71c | 76.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 65c | 75.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 31c | 65.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 76c | 62.13$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e48…1bf2backed Yes | 74c | 52.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 49.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 48.06$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 69c | 45.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 43.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 70c | 42.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 27c | 41.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 32c | 41.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…2c35backed Yes | 69c | 40.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 68c | 40.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 64c | 39.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 36.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 49c | 33.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 65c | 33.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 36c | 32.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 72c | 31.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 73c | 30.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 71c | 30.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 72c | 28.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…b6c6backed Yes | 64c | 22.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 65c | 20.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26f8…3770backed Yes | 68c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…697fbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed Yes | 64c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 72c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 72c | 15.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.