Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b53da3c76884dcc7563e694bba73c35f7fa0e62b731b2f19a60332a158d5aeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 825.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 64c | 498.07$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 34c | 245.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 62c | 241.48$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…6555backed Yes | 28c | 193$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 181$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 30c | 168.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 165$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 36c | 139.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 128$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 36c | 124.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 121$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 37c | 120.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 34c | 117.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 15c | 116.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 115.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 32c | 100.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 100.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 94.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 90.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038c…b4e0backed Yes | 33c | 85.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 34c | 81.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 62c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 68.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 25c | 66.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 66.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 62c | 65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 57.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 67c | 56$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 64c | 56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 73c | 53.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 47.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 44.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 42.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 30c | 37.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 37.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 36c | 33.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 70c | 32.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 71c | 29.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028b…4ad0backed No | 71c | 19.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 17.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 16.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 36°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 37°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 38°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.