Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b9806acc8ce07c1496087aa13cab8fc1f94915e5358412a17f266a7e5fda8b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 39c | 637.78$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.88 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 277.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Yes | 43c | 237.73$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 157.67$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 72c | 152.24$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.24 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 151.65$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 133.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 43c | 116.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 84.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 60c | 79.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…95cfbacked Yes | 40c | 79.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 78.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 42c | 75.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 54c | 71.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 61.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 41c | 58.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 43c | 58.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 54.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 59c | 53.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 53c | 50.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 45.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 44.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 44c | 42.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 43c | 39.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 102 | 19.6%20 W · 82 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 38c | 39.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 62c | 37.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8241…1ababacked Yes | 44c | 37.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 56c | 34.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f40…1ae0backed Yes | 45c | 33.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed Yes | 39c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb6…5b35backed No | 57c | 31.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 63c | 30.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 36c | 28.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 38c | 27.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 26.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…5910backed No | 54c | 25.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x780d…3e2dbacked No | 57c | 25.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 58c | 23.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 60c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…bc70backed Yes | 50c | 22.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 60cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc65e…0b4ebacked No | 57c | 21.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 19.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.