Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bab47960aebb1fe315590e225d62709d0c610be04ea017b120a55b84cdb94f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,046
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,046 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab07…e6f1backed Yes | 72c | 539.37$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.89 | 474 | 17.9%85 W · 389 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…ea03backed Yes | 35c | 465.02$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.36 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked No | 57c | 450$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.25 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 41c | 258.55$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 38c | 200$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…9a74backed Yes | 57c | 130.55$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 19c | 84.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 49c | 84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…33f5backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked No | 24c | 79.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 78.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc529…a99cbacked No | 57c | 75.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 64.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 47c | 62.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 31c | 59.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7c…2229backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 49.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7a95…9bbbbacked No | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…06c4backed Yes | 43c | 34.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58d…73dbbacked Yes | 79c | 33.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…9f15backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…ea53backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 65–66°F on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or higher on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 59–60°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 61–62°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 63–64°F on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67–68°F on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.