Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bdddf633626553545c5168e1043992f458977e278519b0eab78a4ed35331a1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Team Nemesis | 27c | 1,542$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.92 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 73c | 1,369$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.21 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Team Nemesis | 16c | 1,313$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.15 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e92fbacked Team Nemesis | 20c | 1,253$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked Team Nemesis | 15c | 1,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…7179backed Team Nemesis | 15c | 823.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 80c | 584.75$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 517.48$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.32 | 381 | 42%160 W · 221 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Team Spirit | 76c | 500.12$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.16 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Team Spirit | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Team Nemesis | 13c | 495$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Team Nemesis | 26c | 473.05$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96a8…6107backed Team Nemesis | 22c | 456.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2776…4ecbbacked Team Spirit | 72c | 417$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.76 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9a…89a5backed Team Nemesis | 27c | 366.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 13c | 359.11$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Nemesis | 14c | 314$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.96 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4c…f815backed Team Spirit | 72c | 238.11$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Team Nemesis | 16c | 226.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Team Nemesis | 26c | 226.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…b0f8backed Team Spirit | 72c | 206.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Team Nemesis | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 138$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc19…31c4backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 137.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed Team Nemesis | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6e…2c9bbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Team Nemesis | 19c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5292…b3ecbacked Team Nemesis | 23c | 65.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Team Spirit | 61c | 65.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 58.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Team Spirit | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 90 | 31.1%28 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed Team Nemesis | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Spirit | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Team Spirit | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Team Spirit | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed Team Spirit | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…de16backed Team Spirit | 80c | 19.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 89 | 65.2%58 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Team Spirit | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed Team Spirit | 74c | 14.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Cthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.