TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Team Nemesis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$396,090
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$443,072

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,090 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Team Nemesis28c42,831$11,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,921.4371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Team Nemesis20c16,448$3,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.9732549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit69c11,796$8,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,654.4196357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Team Spirit66c11,549$7,629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.7617948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit68c10,676$7,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.411,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Team Spirit80c10,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00028159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd17…3116backed Team Nemesis0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Team Spirit54c10,000$5,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,583.8847146.1%217 W · 254 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Team Nemesis27c9,845$2,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,671.9315951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Nemesis28c8,691$2,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.311,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Nemesis29c8,217$2,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,415.141,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Nemesis31c7,654$2,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.591,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2039…2e5fbacked Team Nemesis46c6,572$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Nemesis17c6,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Spirit66c5,454$3,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.8934468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Team Nemesis26c4,732$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,237.4916746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Nemesis23c4,641$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.9345750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Nemesis25c4,442$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.0548053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Nemesis30c4,229$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.3568649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked Team Nemesis24c4,182$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.0528251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a46…8112backed Team Spirit75c4,003$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.222347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit71c3,729$2,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.5179559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Team Nemesis15c3,420$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.7828044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Nemesis18c3,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54080056%448 W · 352 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x070f…ed83backed Team Nemesis31c3,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92026247.7%125 W · 137 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Team Nemesis1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x823d…f85bbacked Team Nemesis37c2,995$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.022450%12 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Team Nemesis18c2,817$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.2517757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Nemesis17c2,409$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40047450.8%241 W · 233 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c52…1a59backed Team Spirit80c2,400$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4806374.6%47 W · 16 L+9.6wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0fbc…d6a4backed Team Nemesis31c2,309$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.473748.6%18 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Nemesis20c2,282$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4428347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Team Nemesis28c2,265$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.551,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Nemesis18c2,216$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.9447046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed Team Spirit53c2,200$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03429546.1%136 W · 159 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Spirit72c2,100$1,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.551364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a8…6427backed Team Nemesis14c2,076$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.077770.1%54 W · 23 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Nemesis34c2,050$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.91,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Team Nemesis1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed Team Spirit65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70011154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis15c1,942$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.311,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked Team Nemesis31c1,849$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.195238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Team Spirit65c1,811$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.8312259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Team Nemesis34c1,697$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58531936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe459…737dbacked Team Nemesis35c1,650$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb877…4601backed Team Nemesis18c1,643$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8241055.1%226 W · 184 L+39.6wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Team Spirit66c1,532$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.9814557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Nemesis17c1,504$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6870236.6%257 W · 445 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed Team Spirit71c1,432$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.7921158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Nemesis24c1,400$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.831,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked Team Nemesis18c1,326$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.688657%49 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Spirit78c1,300$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.691756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Team Nemesis41c1,300$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.3816541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit55c1,200$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.3353652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Team Spirit58c1,140$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.9932756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x219a…f65bbacked Team Spirit63c1,114$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.073435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Team Nemesis3c1,111$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Team Nemesis21c1,078$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7212136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x948a…d1a4backed Team Spirit63c1,074$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.4924154.8%132 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eac…e409backed Team Nemesis21c1,062$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22210961.5%67 W · 42 L+11.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x64ba…b7bfbacked Team Spirit70c1,001$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.32250%11 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Team Spirit66c1,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.122461.2%137 W · 87 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Spirit52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48056949%279 W · 290 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Nemesis19c965.59$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4661256%343 W · 269 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Nemesis15c915.88$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.350749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Spirit70c900$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed Team Nemesis31c887.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.285244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb4…da4fbacked Team Spirit68c880.97$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.977566.7%50 W · 25 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Nemesis36c833.33$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Spirit64c819.98$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.9953758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Team Spirit55c810$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.525752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Team Nemesis4c783.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed Team Nemesis44c760$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.114551%74 W · 71 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f41…547cbacked Team Nemesis28c738.89$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20813142.7%56 W · 75 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed Team Spirit71c722.1$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.6711551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0273…f081backed Team Nemesis32c705$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.615539.4%61 W · 94 L+0.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Team Spirit74c700$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18496245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b57…de6bbacked Team Nemesis44c696.83$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.819338.9%75 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c13…71a1backed Team Spirit58c689.66$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.664540%18 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbe…1f4abacked Team Spirit73c685.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.869365.6%61 W · 32 L+5.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31b9…150bbacked Team Spirit76c679.99$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.259154%319 W · 272 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5502…d440backed Team Nemesis20c650$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13045457.5%261 W · 193 L+39.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Spirit79c623.29$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.2190753.7%487 W · 420 L+50.2wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc24…27f1backed Team Spirit74c614.35$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.681050%5 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a77…e59dbacked Team Nemesis33c614.29$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.8622031.8%70 W · 150 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Spirit67c601.47$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…3b0dbacked Team Nemesis17c588.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004910.2%5 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe60e…3f04backed Team Spirit60c581.7$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.76660.6%40 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa102…6b5bbacked Team Spirit64c554.99$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.83847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Nemesis2c549.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1137811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked Team Nemesis41c536.61$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0155251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed Team Nemesis10c521.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504030%12 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4455…8aa2backed Team Spirit56c518.32$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.323652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Nemesis34c509$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4296645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Team Nemesis26c507.84$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4316256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Spirit54c507.11$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.2789341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed Team Spirit60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20017449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x024c…5fa1backed Team Nemesis15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7513635.3%48 W · 88 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd92f…042dbacked Team Spirit60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-68.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Team Nemesis28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14018437.5%69 W · 115 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.