Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bdf24c1af56ed61d02a165eb4436a287e7926e0227e14cefd34cedcf00e3e8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 7c | 694.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 5c | 615.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d5…d3a6backed Yes | 71c | 598.89$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 3c | 486.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 19c | 378.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.83 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 18c | 335.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.56 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 316.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 75c | 312.23$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 16c | 309.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.74 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 5c | 296.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 295.94$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 284.5$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.69 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 209.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 205.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 22c | 189.06$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 75c | 168.26$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 41c | 163.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.81 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 140.5$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 46c | 131.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 120.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 34c | 107.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 97.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3473…e864backed Yes | 77c | 89.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 111 | 34.2%38 W · 73 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 84.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 75c | 75$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 74.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…d2dabacked Yes | 24c | 72.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…42c8backed Yes | 21c | 68.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 68$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463a…af96backed Yes | 19c | 65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.87 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 30c | 56.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 52.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 50.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 43c | 46.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…2aa0backed Yes | 45c | 45.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 47c | 42.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 41.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 40.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 67c | 40.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 28c | 38.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 68c | 30.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked Yes | 74c | 24.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 67c | 22.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed Yes | 61c | 20.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.