Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f19fc1d04e81b3023af21a9586d063d304416eb33942ea255be0aeee98da049
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 514.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 27c | 218.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 214$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 72c | 159.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 19c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 26c | 121.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 90.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 88.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417d…08f7backed Yes | 28c | 70.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 62c | 67.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…b472backed Yes | 42c | 65.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 63.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516b…6e53backed Yes | 22c | 56.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 78c | 50.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 50.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 49.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 40.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 40.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 50c | 39.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 38.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 35.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 32.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 75c | 28.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 68c | 25.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 24.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 72c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 16.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 68c | 16.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 76c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed No | 71c | 15.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 73c | 14.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.