Middle East · resolved market
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c508df7bfd7fdd0b1413da8705610f7c2aab0d0427107c50f4f5c7140d9892e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4bc…026cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,400$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418 | 99 | 30.3%30 W · 69 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 6,260$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked Yes | 11c | 2,160$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 1,420$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,288$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 11c | 1,240$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.15 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20c6…1fa2backed Yes | 9c | 1,130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 10c | 999.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 15c | 974.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 17c | 670.54$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.25 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…d707backed Yes | 15c | 661.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 16c | 634.42$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…e7e1backed Yes | 26c | 335.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6614…39cfbacked Yes | 16c | 321.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 6c | 303.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31f…8898backed No | 76c | 287.48$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 8c | 274.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 264.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 16c | 238.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed Yes | 9c | 205.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 16c | 182.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…1178backed Yes | 12c | 178.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3915…f740backed Yes | 17c | 148.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 12c | 148$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…8f40backed Yes | 10c | 120.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 43c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…c116backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…a0a8backed Yes | 25c | 94.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…d7a5backed Yes | 16c | 62.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.