Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ca78a5c9cfcc6eec8d9b5ead159384f05cf86ba12e1901dcb7d474ab42b098f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 1c | 2,202$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked No | 1c | 927$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 2c | 800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 12c | 727.24$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 34c | 413.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.68 | 126 | 19.8%25 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 368.48$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.93 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 35c | 350$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.55 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967c…a16dbacked No | 67c | 346$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.92 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 43c | 300.1$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 29c | 264.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4b…46b6backed Yes | 33c | 220$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 67c | 170$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…771dbacked No | 68c | 163.83$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…60d2backed No | 69c | 143.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 128.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b8…4cdbbacked No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6bf…8e48backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc363…1d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2610…4b04backed Yes | 40c | 63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d96…b50fbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 48.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 23c | 46.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…a8bbbacked Yes | 61c | 32.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f9…4b22backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 77c | 20.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 17?this page
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 12?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 13?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 14?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 15?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 16?No won
- Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.