MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ce5aab0ffa1be5cd160e5311db29be8811428e55d8c2199a93e499b9795bd0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,808
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 9,975$4,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,186.9 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 56c | 7,673$4,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,293.24 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 52c | 3,700$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,924 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Under | 52c | 3,680$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.8 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 2,872$1,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,459.46 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 47c | 2,313$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,217.01 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 2,034$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 1,972$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.67 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 1,177$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.3 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 626.56$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.42 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 605$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.55 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Under | 47c | 429.79$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 248.76$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 47c | 171.47$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 53c | 149.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3461…ce6cbacked Under | 53c | 139.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 54c | 129$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 36c | 99.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 36c | 99.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Under | 52c | 99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 36c | 95.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 16c | 80.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 58c | 73.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 69c | 65.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 31c | 60.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked Over | 48c | 54.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 63c | 37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 59c | 33.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 32.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 29.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Under | 58c | 29.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 45c | 23.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 57c | 18.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 72c | 15.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4f…5ec9backed Under | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.