MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cb43d913571c09bcfaeb5f3c2cdc4508d457dc683120264171640e7096fd2c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,130
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 4,886$1,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,247.13 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 63c | 1,735$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.05 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 63c | 1,658$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.54 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 1,582$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.44 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.95 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 38c | 1,377$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 37c | 1,159$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.13 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 17c | 950$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.11 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 37c | 882$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 22c | 633.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed Over | 37c | 443.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.71 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc44e…284abacked Under | 14c | 415.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 33c | 342$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.79 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 70c | 234.3$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.45 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 217.4$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 17c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 64c | 120.31$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 37c | 114$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 78c | 109.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.39 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Over | 38c | 98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 62c | 90$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Under | 72c | 58.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 76c | 50.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over | 31c | 47.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 474 | 46.6%221 W · 253 L | +26.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 69c | 32.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 63c | 31.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.