MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d9d51f0efcb01cc817ae41de1dae512a6ccfdb70b349d7b4c53970df0263f30

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $67,446
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $67,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,446 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed Over	55c	54,879$30,184 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24,695.77	469	49%230 W · 239 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	46c	27,216$12,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,469.07	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Under	45c	21,104$9,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,496.62	716	50.7%363 W · 353 L	+9.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over	52c	4,342$2,240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,102.74	2,969	48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f1…7aefbacked Under	45c	3,333$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	399	53.6%214 W · 185 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3453…8524backed Under	45c	3,333$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	385	51.4%198 W · 187 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	43c	1,840$787 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,052.81	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	56c	1,800$1,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,008.8	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Under	51c	1,741$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.99	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	55c	1,221$671 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$549.38	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	45c	994.34$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.8	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6600…d5fdbacked Under	45c	667$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.15	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Over	42c	566.5$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328.57	1,137	42.6%484 W · 653 L	+10.0wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Under	45c	560.55$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.75	488	51.6%252 W · 236 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed Over	55c	500$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$225	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	45cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Under	45c	422.07$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.93	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	45c	311$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.95	1,521	48.6%739 W · 782 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	55c	305.05$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.27	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Under	42c	296.93$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.71	1,879	40.6%763 W · 1,116 L	-39.9wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Under	45c	250.02$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.51	461	52.1%240 W · 221 L	+6.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf3…50a8backed Under	45c	212.76$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.74	42	31%13 W · 29 L	-5.7wins	-0.14per pick	44cpaid	-29%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a41…f527backed Under	45c	212.76$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.74	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	-5.2wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5630…7574backed Under	45c	177.78$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	163	55.8%91 W · 72 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	35c	167.03$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.35	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f45…e6a7backed Under	45c	166.66$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x212b…0ba5backed Under	45c	166.64$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.99	536	55.8%299 W · 237 L	+22.6wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cdf…58e1backed Under	45c	124.98$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.24	462	55.8%258 W · 204 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Under	45c	111.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Over	44c	110.7$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.99	287	49.5%142 W · 145 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd577…c012backed Under	45c	106.38$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	146	45.9%67 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7218…ea41backed Under	45c	106.38$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.1wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bb8…7017backed Under	45c	104.17$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.88	133	44.4%59 W · 74 L	-5.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…a1febacked Under	45c	104.17$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.88	151	47.7%72 W · 79 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x282b…cc76backed Under	45c	90$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	44c	88.19$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.61	527	50.1%264 W · 263 L	+19.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Over	43c	87.95$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.42	470	56.6%266 W · 204 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Over	43c	87.95$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.42	733	55.3%405 W · 328 L	+22.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…7593backed Under	45c	87.5$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.38	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-2.4wins	-0.24per pick	44cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9a1…d1eebacked Over	31c	70.97$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.97	45	60%27 W · 18 L	+4.1wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	42c	66.81$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.69	556	45.3%252 W · 304 L	-17.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba71…1209backed Under	45c	66.67$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fa…30cebacked Under	45c	61.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	233	57.5%134 W · 99 L	+22.2wins	+0.10per pick	48cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	51c	55.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	11,356	52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L	+209.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3599…5338backed Under	47c	48.38$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	128	48.4%62 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa71d…9854backed Under	45c	42.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	-5.9wins	-0.13per pick	44cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x947d…dff0backed Under	45c	42.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-4.2wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc972…98b6backed Under	45c	42.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ea…1bd8backed Under	45c	42.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-1.9wins	-0.12per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd6…cfdebacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	55c	37.86$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	2,944	47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L	+4.2wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf04b…049abacked Under	57c	35.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-6.4wins	-0.16per pick	45cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Under	45c	30.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	403	41.4%167 W · 236 L	-20.0wins	-0.05per pick	46cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over	55c	26.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.15	881	47.8%421 W · 460 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd770…209dbacked Over	55c	25.15$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.25	152	48%73 W · 79 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Over	56c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	856	45.3%388 W · 468 L	+18.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Under	44c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,813	49.1%891 W · 922 L	-26.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15e…7c54backed Under	45c	24.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.94	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	42cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Under	67c	20$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	223	52.5%117 W · 106 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	60c	19.38$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	4,477	48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L	-47.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over	56c	18.04$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.94	564	35.1%198 W · 366 L	-21.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansArizona Diamondbacks won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 19.5Over won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-6.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event