Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cf2869036bcf0c8458d88eda3b344f6b4367f00d0ce0bee0e3bd75bea16b457
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 76c | 1,510$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.66 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 37c | 863.29$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.84 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 63c | 511$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 45c | 446.1$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.87 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 24c | 424.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 214$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 186.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 28c | 150$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 135$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 134$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 62c | 133$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 45c | 113.07$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 105.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc20…c5dbbacked Yes | 40c | 98.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 35c | 92.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 65.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…bd66backed No | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 35c | 33.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0295…49d0backed Yes | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on July 17?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on July 17?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.