Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4f82a9b4946f7479e93e94386f8d453d0b906b29daab2f667943cae6fe8327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked Yes | 1c | 1,352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 719.41$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 528.26$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 493.64$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 26c | 410.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 78c | 225.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 169.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 164.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 24c | 159.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 34c | 152.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 129.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 25c | 111.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 97.39$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 32c | 97.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 17c | 88.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 72c | 85.25$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 24c | 84.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 23c | 84.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e8…90bfbacked Yes | 20c | 74.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 25c | 73.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 28c | 72.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 72.58$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 64.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 22c | 63.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 26c | 62.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 54.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 53.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 49.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 21c | 47.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…23e8backed Yes | 31c | 46.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 24c | 46.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b06…70cbbacked Yes | 25c | 44.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed Yes | 25c | 42.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 37.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…4097backed No | 76c | 28.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 73c | 26.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed No | 76c | 24.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 70c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 23.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 79c | 20.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 73c | 19.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked No | 68c | 19.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 75c | 15.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 14.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 73c | 13.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on April 3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.