Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on April 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbd825941f01ab9a3ae031fcee62b3130f9c4e07178d865d81bc3e0157b4b139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cae…def2backed No | 73c | 2,818$2,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.89 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 21c | 1,053$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.14 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 35c | 762.46$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.38 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 701.24$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 32c | 644.62$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.42 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 14c | 587.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 475.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 46c | 425.68$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.31 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 352.38$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 338.7$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 30c | 299.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.31 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…ee2cbacked No | 60c | 275.49$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 77c | 254.55$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 66c | 236.75$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 36c | 236.13$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.14 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 53c | 231.74$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.93 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497f…d987backed Yes | 21c | 202$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.58 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 197.28$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 49c | 189.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.17 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 60c | 187.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.43 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ea…6523backed Yes | 57c | 159.61$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.8 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 149.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 64c | 119.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 67c | 112.82$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.95 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 103.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 31c | 101.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77d0…6f1fbacked No | 57c | 98.72$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 59c | 97.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 90.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 86.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 44c | 82.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 17c | 80.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 79.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 78.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cda…1d96backed No | 60c | 76.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 36c | 72.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 80c | 71.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 41c | 69.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 39c | 68.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 50c | 68.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 66.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 63.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 43c | 60.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed Yes | 37c | 60.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 31c | 60.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked Yes | 38c | 59.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 25c | 58.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf0…d2b3backed Yes | 47c | 56.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 19c | 54.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 33c | 51.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 50.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 73c | 50.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 49.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 37c | 46.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 56c | 44.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes | 35c | 43.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 54c | 41.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 74c | 40.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 50c | 39.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 76c | 39.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 32c | 39.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 62c | 38.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 64c | 38.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 51c | 38.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked No | 44c | 37.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 27c | 37.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed No | 63c | 36.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 40c | 35.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 38c | 32.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 57c | 31.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 56c | 29.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 59c | 29.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 80c | 29.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 41c | 28.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 68c | 28.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…920fbacked Yes | 65c | 28.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 73c | 28.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 39c | 27.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…dafbbacked Yes | 53c | 26.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…d22dbacked No | 56c | 26.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 67c | 26.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 57c | 25.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 77c | 25.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 66c | 25.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 55c | 24.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 60c | 24.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f06…0e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or higher on April 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.