MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d707f706cc07f9ea1946c6b2af1d05c2e620269843b909d96a6c454684bbccf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 10,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 6,798$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,098.57 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 1,948$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.82 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 1,145$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.7 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 684.72$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 509.05$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.97 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 350.48$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.92 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 334$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.2 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Cincinnati Reds | 25c | 323.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.99 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 69c | 249.58$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.39 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 204.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.19 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 203$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 83.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 68.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 65.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 21c | 62.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 75c | 52.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 46.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 41.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 40.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 40.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 33.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51d…514cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 33.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…de88backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 32.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…70f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 31.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 31.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 41c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 67c | 18.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 15.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.