MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a71f1dd7c1e721db8e8e114284138950c6677c62fd2f809e04127e44d1f04da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 43c | 9,560$4,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,449.2 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 57c | 7,777$4,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,432.89 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 62c | 6,331$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.04 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 39c | 5,718$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.24 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 3,854$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.44 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 58c | 2,377$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.44 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Under | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 1,108$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.81 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 54c | 1,102$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.02 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Under | 57c | 800$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 444.1$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.98 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 4c | 366$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 237.7$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.49 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 46c | 211$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 42c | 149.08$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5f…6ee5backed Under | 49c | 107.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 99.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Under | 56c | 75.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 425 | 48.2%205 W · 220 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 44c | 68.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 60.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117b…f017backed Under | 59c | 47.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 44c | 43.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 56c | 42.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 49c | 38.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…1068backed Under | 56c | 30.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 149 | 51.7%77 W · 72 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…ac26backed Under | 55c | 28.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c8…ccffbacked Under | 55c | 28.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…b6f1backed Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…f426backed Under | 55c | 26.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x327a…a9b8backed Under | 55c | 25.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 55c | 24.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf723…7835backed Under | 54c | 24.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…394abacked Under | 55c | 24.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…90e5backed Under | 55c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…74f1backed Under | 55c | 23.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb351…d62abacked Under | 54c | 23.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b8…d280backed Under | 55c | 22.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…e320backed Under | 55c | 22.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…8194backed Under | 55c | 22.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…60efbacked Under | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c38…c255backed Under | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed Under | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2043…4a73backed Under | 55c | 20.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…6b74backed Under | 54c | 20.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69f…ffeebacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…a79cbacked Under | 55c | 19.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 77c | 19.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 76c | 15.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.