MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb32d759c1e70f0c4535554a0d198bc19feb9402657bef6452724eb6e8f872f0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 33c | 10,544$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 4,041$2,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,826.91 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 3,810$2,857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.68 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…20dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 3,091$1,801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.08 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 1,372$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 974.15$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 904.39$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.93 | 1,215 | 40.5%492 W · 723 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 748.03$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.65 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 545.95$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 516.11$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.09 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 440.58$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.7 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -8.9wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…67a1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 330$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 370 | 52.2%193 W · 177 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 281.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.65 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 11c | 274.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 269.23$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 481 | 45.3%218 W · 263 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 253.49$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.58 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 230.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 260 | 63.8%166 W · 94 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 16c | 200.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 666 | 48.2%321 W · 345 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 117$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 102$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x920b…fcfbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 166 | 48.8%81 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 95.74$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 89.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 88.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 87.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 76.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 68.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 68.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 67.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…e9dcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -6.7wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 57.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 39c | 55.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 51.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 292 | 50.7%148 W · 144 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a48…9e7bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 45.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 195 | 49.2%96 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 44.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…1afbbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 40.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 39.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 38.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 247 | 42.9%106 W · 141 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 34.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 30.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 22.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 20.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.