MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8587bb9868bcd8aba92d8ce93a25ac1b3689e4a1c2c177ea33228a8ac955ff2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 58c | 6,611$3,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,809.88 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Yes | 42c | 5,679$2,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.53 | 233 | 51.1%119 W · 114 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 43c | 1,233$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.55 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 58c | 979$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.91 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…fcf7backed No | 57c | 920.1$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.11 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 45c | 587.87$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.54 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8902…8893backed No | 57c | 260.53$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8588backed No | 63c | 160$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed No | 54c | 83.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…4983backed No | 57c | 81.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 159 | 42.8%68 W · 91 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 56c | 55.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed No | 65c | 44.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 36c | 42.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Yes | 43c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 56c | 35.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Piratesthis page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.