Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dc7e28f175ebcb62ad6540068f2933d948b38b9398c908310943d2e5ef716b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 31c | 931.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.04 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 53c | 365.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.9 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 18c | 255.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 42c | 213.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.84 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 63c | 193.49$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 171.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 134$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 67c | 120.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 105$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 99.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 97.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 27c | 97.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 93.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 90$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…3dd8backed Yes | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 67.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 64.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 37c | 55.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 76c | 52.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 79c | 50.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 24c | 46.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 90 | 27.8%25 W · 65 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 73c | 28.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 24.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x031b…eeebbacked No | 75c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 19.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…32d0backed Yes | 76c | 14.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 71cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on August 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on August 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C on August 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C or higher on August 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.