MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd4e17fa45b9d9a0685b378efac27fbb51bf6ab92d685d1d9aa9cd8110f6fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda0f…d41cbacked Over | 47c | 7,875$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700.05 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Under | 68c | 2,839$1,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.58 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6c…b40cbacked Under | 62c | 2,768$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 2,449$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.34 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 2,293$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.35 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…9504backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 51c | 1,284$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.27 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 37c | 1,170$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.13 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 1,100$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 35c | 1,064$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.34 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 50c | 984.55$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.28 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…1118backed Under | 50c | 970$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed Under | 61c | 908.12$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.94 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Under | 51c | 679.42$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.92 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 563.12$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.69 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 57c | 254.98$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Under | 52c | 204.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.36 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 148.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 51c | 89.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 49c | 66.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…0a8cbacked Under | 50c | 64.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 47c | 62.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 779 | 52.1%406 W · 373 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 47c | 62.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 624 | 54.2%338 W · 286 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 35c | 49.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 54c | 49.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a27…2fdcbacked Under | 52c | 41.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 39.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x442e…a738backed Under | 52c | 36.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…4092backed Over | 51c | 34.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc32…32f8backed Over | 52c | 31.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Over | 37c | 28.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 52c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 61c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.