MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7523540466416dd0b044dfc19c00108ec171975f82064c3ca0a946caf2f20106
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 753.23$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.76 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 695.78$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…62c7backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 679.87$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 628.59$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.87 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 528.92$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.75 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 520$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 474.77$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.91 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 351.79$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 67c | 203.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Chicago Cubs | 13c | 160.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 152.7$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…b79fbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 147.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 52c | 146.87$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 142.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Chicago Cubs | 40c | 120.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aab…773bbacked Chicago Cubs | 38c | 99.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Chicago Cubs | 40c | 96.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…a69bbacked Chicago Cubs | 39c | 96.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 79.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 63.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 54.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 50.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 46.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 30.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Cleveland Guardians | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Cleveland Guardians | 71c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.