Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e059589cbc9470792c9aa2cd328f8ad19a5fad6488dc7b3f3485598675564f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,507 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c9f…7f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 4,255$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…816cbacked Yes | 25c | 4,220$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…f783backed Yes | 22c | 4,145$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…20b0backed Yes | 26c | 3,998$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…6457backed No | 75c | 1,425$1,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444d…4b0bbacked No | 78c | 1,420$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19cf…ca52backed No | 75c | 1,420$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3842…3384backed No | 75c | 1,420$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101d…a151backed No | 75c | 1,410$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…13bbbacked No | 75c | 1,410$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…4139backed No | 78c | 1,365$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb930…2816backed No | 78c | 1,360$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb7…d46ebacked No | 74c | 1,359$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…d716backed No | 74c | 1,350$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf20f…c845backed No | 75c | 1,299$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7862…0d49backed No | 74c | 1,289$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 606.9$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 19c | 564.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 536$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 78c | 527.98$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.88 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 4c | 442.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 3c | 370.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 319.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 220.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 218.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 199.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 6c | 191.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 172.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 168.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeec…a723backed No | 77c | 167.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 166.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 144$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 141.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 22c | 140.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 136.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed Yes | 14c | 134.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 28c | 112.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 17c | 93.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 77c | 76.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 77c | 69.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 24c | 61.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 70c | 55.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 49.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…d21abacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 36.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 79c | 35.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c5…b9b6backed No | 79c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3718…663ebacked No | 80c | 24.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…a8fcbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…255dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.