TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,507

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,507 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6c9f…7f9dbacked Yes25c4,255$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4168…816cbacked Yes25c4,220$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd899…f783backed Yes22c4,145$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacd5…20b0backed Yes26c3,998$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3056…6457backed No75c1,425$1,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x444d…4b0bbacked No78c1,420$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19cf…ca52backed No75c1,420$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3842…3384backed No75c1,420$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x101d…a151backed No75c1,410$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5be4…13bbbacked No75c1,410$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d4b…4139backed No78c1,365$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb930…2816backed No78c1,360$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb7…d46ebacked No74c1,359$1,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf694…d716backed No74c1,350$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3511100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf20f…c845backed No75c1,299$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7862…0d49backed No74c1,289$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c606.9$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes19c564.17$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.6438840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes21c536$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.231,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No78c527.98$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.881361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick73cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes4c442.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes3c370.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.115136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c319.5$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.217,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes8c220.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.642,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes23c218.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.691,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No78c199.47$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.986050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes6c191.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4733726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes14c172.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.023,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No76c168.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeec…a723backed No77c167.88$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.013452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes22c166.67$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6726834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes10c144$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes15c141.43$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.051,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes22c140.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.081,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No80c136.97$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.851,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9160…1705backed Yes14c134.75$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.523844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes10c120$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7735843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes28c112.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.971,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe472…4360backed Yes17c93.3$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.985328.3%15 W · 38 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No77c76.43$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8949941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No77c69.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3211878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes24c61.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x974b…b29bbacked No70c55.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.651154.5%6 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick75cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No78c49.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes24c46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.041225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f8…d21abacked No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No77c39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.974245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No77c36.97$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.598571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed No79c35.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.426349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ea…98e6backed No78c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.43262.5%20 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe2c5…b9b6backed No79c24.46$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.052369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3718…663ebacked No80c24.39$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.962454.2%13 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.131567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No78c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.181,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb240…a8fcbacked No80c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked No79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.734652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-24.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ae4…255dbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick67cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.52,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.