TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on March 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,429

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,429 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes0c8,512$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5093…272cbacked Yes1c1,120$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0872726.4%192 W · 535 L+63.8wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+47.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No51c560.18$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.4932157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes34c536$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed No65c515$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.611361.5%8 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick73cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes10c414.78$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes19c392.88$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9546824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c375.45$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No65c303.96$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.6554143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No64c270.71$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.1491967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No65c254.89$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.21,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes12c238.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2434618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes19c223.2$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1381234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No67c194.73$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.623,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c174.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.73,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c171.29$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.897,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No58c168.38$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.961,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes36c166.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6026834%91 W · 177 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes37c164.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.121,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No66c159.48$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.341,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a9…fa1cbacked Yes65c151.84$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No44c151.28$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7227560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c151.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.847,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No54c142.71$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.151,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeeec…a723backed No56c137.88$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.253452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c134.68$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0432738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes42c130.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5533535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes32c129.7$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c122.11$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes42c120.69$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.081513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No54c119.73$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.748665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfdf…4056backed Yes37c117.35$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.69757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed No48c114.76$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7610051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes51c110$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes38c109.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.871,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa785…acb6backed Yes34c108.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.077727.3%21 W · 56 L-8.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-27.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No76c106.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.5790040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No61c105.83$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8329558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7280…65d2backed Yes41c104.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5722023.6%52 W · 168 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked No56c101.19$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.028048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes41c100$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416950.7%35 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4186050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.126253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc33…9636backed No65c99.99$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3512540%50 W · 75 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes44c99.9$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9625029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c19…c63cbacked Yes52c94.17$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.97771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+31.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes14c94.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.189520%19 W · 76 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes41c92$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.724245.2%19 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda59…51c5backed Yes38c91.97$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.761020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-37.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes52c91.38$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1232444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedc3…023dbacked Yes51c90.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.62470.8%17 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+50.1%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xcbb4…9ed0backed Yes56c89.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No43c85.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9813453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c81.43$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c74.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x70f4…a54abacked Yes33c74.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No67c73.96$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4132760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No46c73.73$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8659742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x2205…8089backed No54c73.27$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9129056.2%163 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Yes69c72.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes40c72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5433839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes48c70$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.66735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes51c69.89$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.621,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5580…8029backed Yes63c63.46$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405261.5%32 W · 20 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes31c62.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed Yes31c62.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4916434.1%56 W · 108 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94e6…0a73backed Yes27c55.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.987841%32 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes36c55.19$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2014736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x59b4…78c9backed No63c53.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.656755.2%37 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No52c51.95$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7134651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc6f…577ebacked Yes23c51.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes46c50.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5869…071dbacked No47c50.47$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.711353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6922728.6%65 W · 162 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6508…b3b0backed Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No37c47.12$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.62,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x888f…23f5backed Yes38c47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8117338.2%66 W · 107 L+0.4wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87fe…875bbacked No45c46.53$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.374456.8%25 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c45.37$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.762,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No65c45.19$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.021,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9853…2f25backed No69c44.06$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.666563.1%41 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d45…020fbacked Yes31c43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes39c42.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.422,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c39.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.513,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44c4…e3bfbacked Yes42c39.5$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.722528%7 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-33.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No63c39.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.611,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes38c37.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.293,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No69c36.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.231,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No69c36.2$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef08…efd3backed No62c35.84$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.59850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4849941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39da…5318backed No47c34.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.276643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a0…2c30backed No63c34.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.67933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-42.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x481f…92f0backed Yes35c34.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04100%0 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed No37c33.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3355919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd570…cecebacked Yes32c33.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes35c31.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.257232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes41c30.83$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.521547.4%102 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b25…51eebacked Yes65c30.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206753.7%36 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.