World Politics · resolved market
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Zohran Mamdani?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e21dbb21b636587bb73b0955ad3b1d375e3af82a34040e8b4a943774d0176cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed No | 16c | 960$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 73c | 507.88$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.44 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 26c | 398.06$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 390.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.68 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 74c | 333.08$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 70c | 330$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 70c | 295$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 72c | 291$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 74c | 288.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 80c | 280.76$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 27c | 230$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 192.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 28c | 189.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 12c | 170.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 28c | 154.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…6e0bbacked No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 27c | 148.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes | 76c | 130.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 20c | 109.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…e0e1backed Yes | 72c | 101$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 16c | 100.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 18c | 75.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 74c | 67.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f9…2573backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +119%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…c807backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7d…8a55backed Yes | 73c | 41.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 77c | 27.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Zohran Mamdani?this page
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Andrew Cuomo?No won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse Brad Lander?No won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse no one?No won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorse someone else?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.