Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e30efde5ff6c42a5be15993df6d8c6974d41145cfea2b6256ffb6557ffa75ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,113
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,113 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 39c | 831.31$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.81 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 43c | 679.07$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.18 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 70c | 465.21$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.04 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 448.81$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.02 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 53c | 448.04$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.18 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…6bf7backed Yes | 68c | 426.94$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 22c | 362.19$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce0e…bac2backed No | 53c | 358.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eb49backed No | 52c | 262.98$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa61…8f1ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b332backed No | 55c | 145$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c12…3d74backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa901…d418backed No | 53c | 98.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 60c | 64.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed No | 38c | 32.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…27e8backed Yes | 64c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 71c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on April 27?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on April 27?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on April 27?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on April 27?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on April 27?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $98 on April 27?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.