MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4bcdd44f2a6319ff5f791c8227daa94e1b205429cef334d376e36c543d4fcb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 1,841$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.37 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 50c | 1,255$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.28 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 45c | 685.77$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.64 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 55c | 644.51$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.34 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 50c | 582$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Under | 49c | 447.59$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.27 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Under | 50c | 273$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 51c | 245.42$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 231.36$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 189.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 188.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 166.67$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 51c | 161.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 44c | 157.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 112.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Over | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 50c | 80.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 50c | 73.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Over | 45c | 71.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.22 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 52c | 63.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 50c | 62.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 49c | 56.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.78 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 46.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 65c | 38.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 35c | 37.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 51c | 35.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 34c | 32.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 30.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 54c | 30.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 49c | 25.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 57c | 25.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 61c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 17.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.