MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39288f6971fa0210efe0764f7b78769c5cde8afbb0eb44e4fb61e519cb8c9475
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 796.09$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.99 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 674.19$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.22 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 527.34$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 400$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 370.89$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.28 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 273.51$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 233.48$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 216.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.21 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 211.15$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.08 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 208.56$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.48 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 175.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 106.83$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee8…1b93backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 91.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.33per pick | 49cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 60c | 90.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 79.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 74.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 70.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 54c | 68.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 62.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 50.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 47.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 40.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 39.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 39.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 37.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 32.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 28.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.