Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e56b6c459bec8053be0b9a690b62f2b510c1aad244fb5604b203452001ca430
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,006$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 36c | 489.94$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 423$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.74 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 71c | 343$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.95 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 335.12$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 43c | 170$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.78 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 151.91$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 146$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 140.38$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0c…ef83backed Yes | 26c | 139.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 123.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 67c | 111.28$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 62c | 107.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 70c | 85.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 66c | 84.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 48c | 83.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 30c | 79.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 29c | 76.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 70.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 77c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 41c | 64.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…a7dabacked Yes | 51c | 58.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 42c | 56.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 29c | 39.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 38.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 73c | 36.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 37c | 34.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…cee8backed No | 70c | 33.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 58c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 44c | 29.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 28.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 60c | 28.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 67c | 25.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…c3cbbacked Yes | 55c | 19.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 73c | 19.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b02…2433backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 71°F or below on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.