Champions League · resolved market
Olympique de Marseille vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6eb866b7251eb6ecd8563f5fbad0c3c8ea2adf933a607e2cf5fa377593808171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 11,683$5,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,267.76 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 55c | 10,000$5,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 45c | 3,333$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.84 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 54c | 2,903$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.84 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Over | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 45c | 1,317$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.77 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad34…4386backed Under | 47c | 1,026$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 45c | 771$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.95 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 635$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.83 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea5…2af9backed Over | 55c | 582.72$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.72 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 500.2$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 397 | 46.9%186 W · 211 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…8befbacked Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 474.66$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.16 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 189 | 50.3%95 W · 94 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 45c | 420.82$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.43 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 45c | 364$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 209 | 47.8%100 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…d15dbacked Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa52…85b7backed Over | 55c | 334.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.32 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 272.84$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 55c | 270$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Over | 56c | 267.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.85 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…457fbacked Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 55c | 237.52$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.03 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…b511backed Over | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…1742backed Under | 51c | 196.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over | 54c | 184.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.53 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce90…d285backed Over | 54c | 182.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 46c | 172$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Over | 55c | 153.4$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.03 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 54c | 135.44$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9827…e5ffbacked Under | 46c | 125.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 56c | 121.97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…61cdbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…f67ebacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…6e0cbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 14c | 92.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Under | 46c | 88.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Over | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 44c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 144 | 47.2%68 W · 76 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Under | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Over | 56c | 55.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 198 | 56.6%112 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…5b17backed Over | 56c | 50.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 55c | 46.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 45c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855b…8dd0backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb375…59d6backed Under | 46c | 35.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d00…dd1ebacked Under | 47c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 53c | 32.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…dae3backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under | 46c | 27.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…3232backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -40%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…d077backed Over | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +57%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 44c | 22.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +10.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…2da5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377d…b135backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Olympique de Marseille vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5)Olympique de Marseille won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.