World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ed554cd5917f429898053be48d362e06dfeb19b23a4871035006bdaf1fc117e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 15c | 1,223$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 452.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 431.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 407.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 367.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 4c | 320.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed Yes | 18c | 270.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 10c | 269.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 19c | 262.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 250.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 245.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 237.78$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 232.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 13c | 226.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 30cpaid | +236.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 19c | 213$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 13c | 170$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…28f0backed Yes | 18c | 167.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1bc5backed Yes | 18c | 166.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 9c | 166.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 9c | 162.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea55…558fbacked Yes | 19c | 161.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 161$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 19c | 155$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 149.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 18c | 126.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 117.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…3509backed Yes | 16c | 113.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 12c | 104.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 21c | 102.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 14c | 102.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 99.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed Yes | 21c | 95.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 90.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 29c | 73.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 23c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 20c | 63.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 25c | 60.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 20c | 59.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 22c | 52.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 20c | 51.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 71c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 27.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 25.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.