World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45e263f8aaae1b381ffd9bd02253e27889df3d80d17480847bd90c7cb417a625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 1,436$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.8 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 805.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 622.1$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.94 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 457.5$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 29c | 444.13$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.74 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…c2c8backed Yes | 29c | 415.49$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 26c | 391.7$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 6c | 387.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 35c | 343.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 65c | 331.42$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 326.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 325.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 299.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 260.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 31c | 240.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.19 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 236.15$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 223.6$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 63c | 219.48$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 215.54$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.51 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 30c | 210.51$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2720…2920backed Yes | 21c | 210$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 41c | 199.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.77 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…c785backed No | 77c | 193.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 185.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 61c | 171.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…8b39backed Yes | 26c | 166.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 15c | 166.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 22c | 163.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 35c | 162.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 65c | 156$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 32c | 142.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked Yes | 34c | 141.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 141.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 28c | 140.73$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 61c | 136.46$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 133.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 75 | 82.7%62 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 32c | 126.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 34c | 125.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 123.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 63c | 120.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 43c | 119.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 116.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 32c | 116.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 115.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 22c | 112.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7355…a4febacked Yes | 40c | 112.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 111.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 106.69$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 67c | 104.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 102.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…cb94backed Yes | 35c | 101.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 96.94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 64c | 95.95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 20c | 95.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 67c | 94.28$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…0caebacked Yes | 32c | 92.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 86.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 85.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 83.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 60c | 82.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 58c | 80.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 62c | 79.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 39c | 76.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 72.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 71.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 66c | 66.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…f754backed No | 78c | 63.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 63.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 120 | 40.8%49 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 63.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 27c | 63.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 63.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f0…12eebacked Yes | 35c | 57.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 56.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 33c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 33c | 54.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 49c | 50.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 68c | 50.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked Yes | 41c | 49.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 60c | 48.25$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 33c | 45.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 55c | 45.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 65c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 65c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 66c | 40.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on May 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.